Breaking down the slow starts of Cruz, Suwinski, and Davis

Photo by Minda Haas Kuhlmann.

One of the joys of sports — and especially in baseball — is that things often do not go as predicted. That’s been a boon for the Pirates this year, as the club was not predicted to be particularly good; most publications picked them to finish last in a weak division. Instead, the Bucs’ hot start has them near the top of a resurgent NL Central, and they’re doing it in a way I wouldn’t have guessed. Starting pitching, which everyone expected to be the weakest part of the roster, has been a surprising strength. I thought the Pirates would be powered by the lineup, but Bucco hitters have been off to something of a slow start, especially over the past week.

Perhaps that’s a bit unfair. The Pirates scored plenty of runs through the first week of the season and are currently 10th in runs scored for all of baseball. Their overall offensive stats are less impressive: as a team, they’re slashing .244/.332/.361 with a 95 wRC+, which is tied for 18th in the majors. But there have been some pleasant surprises at the plate. Edward Olivares was a popular under-the-radar signing in December, and he’s absolutely mashed the ball to open the year, hitting .267/.327/.489. Connor Joe remains the King of April, even after a brutal series against the Mets; he’s hitting .276/.382/.414 so far. Ke’Bryan Hayes has yet to show off the power he flashed down the stretch in 2023 but has been a positive contributor on offense, thanks to his excellent plate discipline. Bryan Reynolds hasn’t quite found his second gear yet, but he’s still provided solid production so far. Hell, Alika Williams has not only been a positive contributor at the plate — he has the best batting line (.318/.375/.455) of any Pirate with at least 20 plate appearances. I don’t expect him to keep it up, but getting anything at all from the light-hitting middle infielder is a pleasant and unexpected surprise that has the additional benefit of keeping Ji-hwan Bae in Indianapolis.

But my optimism for the offense this spring sprang from the depth of the lineup; the Pirates appeared to have a solid middle of the order surrounded by competent bats. At the heart of that lineup was a trio of young mashers: Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis, and Oneil Cruz. Suwinski was able to raise his walk rate last year while adding power, making him a solid corner outfield bat; my hope was that the young outfielder could take another step forward this summer, especially since he wouldn’t have to worry about manning centerfield every day. Davis moved to his old home behind the plate, and after a torrid Spring Training I was optimistic the former first overall pick could have the best offensive season by a Pirate backstop in years. It was hard to know what to expect from Cruz, who essentially missed all of the last season – but the sky-high expectations returned after Cruz mashed the ball in Bradenton this spring.

If we’ve learned anything the past few weeks, it’s that you shouldn’t buy into Spring Training stats (Suwinski slugged .558 in Florida, for the record). All three young hitters are off to atrocious starts to the 2024 campaign. Cruz had a couple of hits on Wednesday to raise his line on the season to .234/.272/.364 — a 72 wRC+, and by far the best of this young trio. Suwinski is hitting a brutal .172/.269/.293, which puts him in front of Davis’s abominable .173/.286/.231 line by a nose. The only hitter on the Pirates with a lower wRC+ than the 55 put up by Davis is Jason Delay, who has all of 6 plate appearances.

Of the three, I think Suwinski’s effort is the most disappointing. Cruz is getting his first real hacks after missing a year of live baseball, while Davis is learning how to catch — and carry the load behind the plate (he’s been the starting catcher in 15 of the Pirates’ 19 games). Suwinski doesn’t haven an excuse; he was healthy last year and he isn’t learning a new, demanding position. But I didn’t write this article to discuss which young hitter was the most disappointing; I wanted to parse through their early at bats to determine which one has the brightest outlook going forward — at least in the short term.

Let’s start with plate discipline, because patience at the plate has become the cause célèbre among Pirate fans. The front office — through their conduit, Andy Haines — has stressed a patient approach at the plate throughout the organization. Hitters are expected to grind out at-bats, staying away from pitches out of the strike zone and being willing to take a called strike or two (or three, as we saw this week). The results so far have been somewhat positive; aside from being 10th in runs scored, the Bucs lead baseball in pitches seen and lead the National League in walk rate (11.3%). But they also strike out a lot (24.5%, third-highest in the senior circuit) and haven’t crushed the ball when they made contact (.117 isolated slugging percentage, second-worst in the NL). Last year, Suwinski was able to cut down on his chase rate without sacrificing power, and he turned in a solid .224/.339/.454 line. Now the Pirates are trying to do that with the rest of the lineup, with mixed results.

Davis actually leads the trio with a 12.5% walk rate, but he’s nonetheless striking out almost 30% of the time. Given the strides he made last year, it comes as no surprise that Suwinski has had the least trouble with strikes and balls; he’s walking almost 12% of the time while striking out at an excellent 16.4% clip; only Joe and Williams have struck out less than Suwinski. Cruz, as you might have guessed, has struggled the most; his 4.9% walk rate is dead last on the Bucs, while his eyeglass-shattering 39.5% strikeout rate leads the team.

But anyone can just look at a player’s strikeout and walk rates; let’s take a look at each player’s swing decision to see what’s driving all these Ks or bases on balls. A lot of Bucco fans have expressed their frustration with Suwinski striking out looking this week — it has happened several times with runners in scoring position — but he’s actually been much more aggressive at the plate this year. His called strike percentage has fallen from 19.5% each of the past two years to 13.4% this year, which is a lower called strike percentage than every team in baseball save the Atlanta Braves. While it might not feel this way, Suwinski is swinging the bat more than he ever has, at pitches both inside and outside the zone. His in-zone swing rate in particular has jumped significantly, from around 62% in each of his last two seasons to 75% so far this year. And he’s generally made contact — his 16.4% whiff rate is among the better in the game. Overall, his plate discipline has been excellent.

Davis’s changes in approach have been more modest. He still takes about 1/3 of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, although his called strike percentage of 16.6% is still lower than average. Davis is swinging the bat a little less than his rookie year, but that’s because he’s also cut down on swinging at pitches outside the zone. Unfortunately, his in-zone contact rate is also down. Perhaps due to his patient approach, Davis is late on fastballs; he’s whiffed 31% of the time against them and is hitting .135 against heat with a putrid .162 slugging percentage. Unsurprisingly, opposing pitchers are now throwing him more fastballs. Catching up to them will be a priority if he’s to break out of his early slump.

Cruz hasn’t changed as much from his rookie year; he’s still swinging at about a third of the pitches he sees outside the zone while looking at called strikes about 21.7% of the time. He has gotten more aggressive against pitches in the zone, swinging 60% of the time, but while his contact rate overall is up, his contact rate on pitches in the zone is an atrocious 77%. Like Davis, Cruz is whiffing more on fastballs than he was in the past. For the struggling catcher and shortstop, opposing pitchers are getting ahead in the count and then blowing them away with heat to end the at-bat.

Really, when you look at the batted ball data, all three hitters are having trouble with fastballs in some capacity. For Davis and Cruz, it’s swing and miss. For Suwinski — who is only whiffing 12% of time against the heat — it’s the quality of contact. Suwinski whiffed on fastballs more often in 2023 but destroyed them when he connected, with a slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage over .500 against the heater. Perhaps it comes as no surprise then that the trio is pulling fewer pitches than they were a year ago (or two years ago, in Cruz’s case) and are instead going to the opposite field more often; it seems as though all three, by trying to avoid going after pitches off the plate, are waiting as long as possible to make swing decisions. Against fastballs, that means more swing-and-miss and weaker contact.

Not that it’s all bad. Cruz, in particular, has suffered from some bad luck on his batted balls. Even while he’s missed the fastball more often, he’s crushed it when he’s made contact. Cruz currently has a .194 average against heat, but Baseball Savant has his expected batting average against fastballs at .255 and his expected slugging at .527 — in line with what he did to heaters as a rookie. Part of the reason that Cruz hasn’t done as much damage is that he’s hitting the ball on the ground almost two-thirds of the time, the highest rate of his brief MLB career, perhaps due to the increasing amount of sinkers he’s faced. Davis and Suwinski have had a bit of sour luck as well, but only a negligible amount.

Looking at the plate discipline and the batted ball data, Davis is the player who jumps out as the biggest concern at the plate. He’s simply striking out too much with little to show for it in terms of hard contact. It’s true that he’s also learning how to be a big-league catcher while shouldering the burden behind the plate, but it’s a disappointing start to the season for a guy drafted first overall, and primarily for his bat (and while the pitching staff has been good, Davis’s defense behind the plate has been so-so; he’s let his share of passed balls slip through and is yet to throw out a baserunner). I think it’s easier to find reasons for optimism with both Cruz and Suwinski. Suwinski has a great approach at the plate, and I’m hoping that his quality of contact improves as pitchers start to challenge him more. Cruz went through a similar period of struggle during his true big-league debut in 2022, and started figuring it out after a couple months in the majors. After a lost season, 2024 is almost like a second debut for Cruz, and he’s still hitting the ball hard. I think Cruz is always going to carry a higher strikeout rate due to the fact he’s got one of the largest strike zones in baseball history to protect, but I can live with that as long as he makes good contact.

Of course, it’s important to be reminded once again that we’re only in the third full week of the season. Phillip Evans (or was it Evan Phillips?) hit like an All-Star in April 2021, as did Michael Chavis during the first month of the 2022 campaign. It’s still very early in the season, and all three of these guys have the talent to become plus hitters over the summer. But as for this mid-April temperature check, I’m the most worried about Davis and the least concerned about Cruz.