Who’s here for now: I wanted the Pirates to sign a couple of free agent starters this offseason, and they did — although it would’ve been nice if they had set their sights a little higher. Of the two, Rich Hill will likely be the better pitcher, despite turning 43 earlier this month. Last year was the first time he’s had an ERA over 4 since 2013, although his FIP suggested he had gotten a little unlucky. Lefties tend to do better at PNC Park, too, which should help. I just don’t know how many innings the Bucs can count on from Hill, who’s struggled with injuries over the course of his career and, again, is 43 years old. Generally, the Pirates’ free agent pitching acquisitions have worked out quite well during the Ben Cherington era; Tyler Anderson was good in 2021, and José Quintana was excellent last year. Perhaps they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to such pitchers, but I still can’t endorse giving Vince Velasquez a rotation spot. Velasquez has never been a good pitcher, and it’s been a while since he’s even been mediocre. If he must start the season in the rotation, the Pirates shouldn’t hesitate to pull the plug as soon as possible if Velasquez fails to show anything on the mound.
You can put a big chunk of the bullpen in here. I was surprised the Bucs even brought back Duane Underwood Jr. in the first place, given that he was arbitration eligible last offseason and hasn’t been particularly good. He’s a frustrating arm, but his FIP was an excellent 2.92 last year, so perhaps he’s due for some positive regression this summer. His opposite is Chase De Jong, who was one of the best relievers in the Pirates bullpen with a 2.64 ERA — but his FIP was more than 2 runs higher, which suggests the regression monster is coming for De Jong. It’s pretty clear watching De Jong that he doesn’t have impressive stuff, and despite his performance last year I would’ve rather seen the Pirates give his inning to an arm with a little more juice. Wil Crowe has flashed impressive stuff at times and won’t be a free agent until after 2026, but I’m just not convinced he’s a good pitcher — even in the bullpen. The Pirates will give him another shot this summer, and he could pitch his way into the team’s long-term plans, but this does feel like his last chance. Robert Stephenson is the only reliever who’s actually a free agent after this year; I think he has the stuff to be a decent option but I’m not sure how much value he’d have as a trade candidate. Dauri Moreta was acquired for Kevin Newman last fall but won’t be a trade candidate; instead, he’ll be moved back and forth between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis based on the needs of the roster.
Who might stick around: last May, I didn’t think Mitch Keller would fall into this category — I couldn’t see the former top pitching prospect sticking around for much longer after another awful start to the season and a move to the bullpen (notoriously Tyler Glasnow’s last stop before being traded). But Keller used his time as a reliever to develop his sinker, and Ray Searage’s old workhorse powered Keller to a comeback season. Upon rejoining the rotation on May 31, he had a 3.22 ERA and 3.69 FIP the rest of the way. He also was among the starters with the most improved stuff in 2022, according to the Athletic’s Eno Sarris. He might not be the ace Pirate fans dreamed of, but he’s turned himself into a pretty good pitcher, and the Bucs should think about locking him up. One guy who was flashing improved stuff this spring was JT Brubaker, but Monday’s injury news could put his 2023 season in doubt. Brubaker isn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but he has been a steady innings-eater since 2020, consuming 144 frames last year. That won’t be easy to replace, but Johan Oviedo will take his best shot. The Cardinals, by all accounts a smarter franchise than the Pirates, threw up their hands and stuck Oviedo in the bullpen before trading him to Pittsburgh last year. But St. Louis was actually trying to win games in 2022, and Oviedo is more interesting than the depth options the Pirates have run out there in the past. He’s got legitimately nasty stuff but his control waxes and wanes, although he did look better over his last few starts last fall (and this spring). Of all the pitchers on the Opening Day Roster, none have as much upside as Roansy Contreras. The Pirates did not handle him well last year; called up early in the season to cover for injuries, Cherington sent him back and forth between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to ensure he makes the league minimum salary for the next few years. To put it lightly, this may not have been good for his development, and Contreras had to waste his bullets in AAA while the big-league club was starved for pitching. He was out of gas by the season’s end, and his pitching suffered as a result; building up arm strength will be imperative after his lost 2020 season and injury-shortened 2021. If he can maintain his velocity deep into the summer, the 2023 season will be a step forward.
Relievers, by their nature, often are not long-term bets given their year-to-year variance. That partly explains the lack of relievers in this section, but also because the bullpen is pretty rough. Hometown hero David Bednar will once again lead the charge; he pitched for the United States in the World Baseball Classic and has been great the last two years, but over-use wore him down over the course of 2022. Hopefully, the bullpen is at least deep enough that Bednar won’t have to do it all by himself. One possible contributor is Colin Holderman, who has a nasty sinker-slider combo and can be a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen option if he can limit the free passes. With Jarlín Garcia’s injury, the only left-hander reliever guaranteed to make the roster is Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez. Like a lot of guys in here, he’s got good stuff but so-so command, which could lead to some frustrating innings — but he should at least be good enough to stick on the big-league roster, which couldn’t be said about previous Rule 5 selections (Luis Oviedo, he recalls with a shudder).
Prospect to watch: I can’t really put Luis Ortiz here, given how much he pitched (and how much attention his pitching garnered) last year. He’ll be the first man up — now that Oviedo is in the rotation — when someone else gets traded/injured. The stuff is disgusting, but he really only has two pitches at this point. It’s awfully hard to be a two-pitch starter, so Ortiz will need to continue developing his changeup or face a move to the bullpen. I’m optimistic about his chances to remain a starter, though, and I will be counting down the days until he is recalled. The Brubaker injury was a bummer, but one thing that has me feeling excited about this season is the rotation depth. Beyond Ortiz, the Bucs have a couple of exciting pitchers waiting in AAA: Mike Burrows and Quinn Priester. Priester has the higher floor, given that he boasts a five-pitch mix and a big, breaking curve, but his pitch data isn’t as impressive as Burrows’. They give the Pirates two good options and both should see Pittsburgh this summer if they stay healthy. A guy I’ll be watching further down in the minors is Jared Jones. He might just have the best raw stuff of any pitcher on the Bucs’ farm, but he has issues with walks and home runs.
Bucco Cy Young: with Brubaker starting the year on the injured list, this looks to be a two-horse race. Keller and Contreras are the only two pitchers who I expect to spend the entire summer on the roster (save injuries). Like Cruz and Hayes on the position player side, Contreras offers more upside while Keller offers the higher floor. I think the Pirates are going to be more careful with Contreras’ innings, and while I think he’ll be stronger than last year, I don’t expect him to maintain his velocity through September. Keller looked like a man reborn last season, and I expect him to maintain his gains in 2023. He might not have the best pure stuff in the rotation, but the inconsistent Keller is now the Bucs’ most consistent option, and he might lead the team in innings pitched.
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