This is part of an ongoing series looking back at the Pirates’ 2022 roster.
JT Brubaker: 144 IP, 4.69 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 9.19 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.9 fWAR
When JT Brubaker was announced as the Opening Day starter in April, it drew some eye rolls from around the fanbase (including yours truly). Brubaker looked like a borderline starter in 2021, and that was on a bad team; I wasn’t sure if the rotation was the best place for him going forward. Brubaker had never had much hype as a prospect, consistently floating around the middle of farm system lists thanks to his ability to throw strikes. His 2020 debut was unimpressive and after a promising start in 2021 he ran out of gas, throwing just 35 innings after the All-Star break with a 7.57 ERA.
So I didn’t see it as a good sign that not only was Brubaker in the starting rotation on Opening Day, he was THE starting pitcher on Opening Day. Brubaker lasted just 3 innings against the Cardinals and allowed 4 runs, but as the spring went on his numbers steadily improved. He pitched deeper into games — he started averaging 5 innings a start, then he pitched into the 6th inning, then averaging 6 innings per start, and then pitching into the 7th — all while striking out a batter an inning. Unlike last year, the fatigue didn’t set in early; one of his best starts came against Boston on Aug. 18th, when he twirled 7 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts. Brubaker did eventually hit the injured list at the end of September, but as his season line above attests, he had a pretty good year.
Some of the credit is due to the Ghost of Ray Searage. Brubaker’s primary pitch in 2020 and 2021 was his slider; he mixed his sinker and four-seamer as his go-to secondary pitches. This year, the sinker was by far his most utilized pitch, while his four-seamer was his least-utilized pitch for most of the summer. Brubaker was able to add more vertical and horizontal break to his sinker, and was able to generate more whiffs with the pitch as a result. His slider fared a little worse this year, but it still generated mostly weak contact and got plenty of whiffs. He also threw more curveballs than ever — it was third only to the sinker and slider — and although it doesn’t have much movement, Brubaker placed it well, and got plenty of weak contact as a result.
Brubaker shouldn’t be the Opening Day starter in 2023, but he’s more than earned a place in the back of the rotation. I don’t know how much growth the soon-to-be 29-year-old has, but I’m willing to bet he can at least match these numbers next year and give the Bucs a chance to win most nights he starts.
David Bednar: 51.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 12.02 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 1.5 fWAR
It’s never a good sign when the Bucs’ lone All-Star is a reliever. Mike Williams was the team’s sole representative in 2002 and 2003, despite carrying an ERA over 6 going into the Midsummer Classic in the latter year (I watched the whole game hoping to see a Pirate player get in the game; Mike Williams did not get in the game). The Pirates lost 89 and 87 games in those two season. In 2010, when the Bucs lost 105 games, Evan Meek was the only Pirate at Angel Stadium. So it was this year; David Bednar was the only Pirate at Dodger Stadium, and the Bucs ended up losing 100 games.
Unsurprisingly, those previous All-Star relievers were not surrounded by a lot of talent, and that was certainly the case with Bednar — especially in the bullpen. Aside from Bednar, Chase De Jong was the only Bucco reliever to toss at least 40 innings with an above-average ERA, and De Jong did so with smoke and mirrors. Bednar, though, was the real deal — and that’s why Derek Shelton rode him until his arm fell off.
When Bednar was on, he was no Mike Williams — he was the kind of dominating arm that the Pirates haven’t had since Felipe Vazquez was arrested. His four-seamer touches triple digits with movement; his splitter and curve were either weakly tapped or swung on and missed. All three of his offerings had whiff rates over 30%. He is, in short, a bullpen weapon. The Pirates do not have many of those, as was made abundantly clear when Bednar went down with injury but the season marched on.
Under most circumstances, Bednar would be a building block for this team going forward — a talented pitcher who is from Pittsburgh and thus the rare MLB player who wants to be a Pirate. But he is also 28 years old and at the peak of his powers; if the Bucs do not intend to compete in the next couple years — and everything Ben Cherington has done indicates they do not — then what’s the point of having a star reliever on the club? Bullpen arms are volatile, and the next injury could be the one that ends Bednar’s dominance. I know the rules are a little different for relievers given that aforementioned volatility, but it’s depressing that we’re already at the point of talking about trading away a guy who was himself acquired in a tear-down trade near the beginning of this seemingly endless rebuild.
Bucco Ball 